Best and worst housing markets in the next 5 years

Miami and Fort Lauderdale homes are expected to lose more value. In contrast, Medford, Ore., prices are expected to grow at an annualized rate of 11.2%.

By Teresa at MSN Real Estate Dec 3, 2012 7:43AM

Condos in South Florida. © SuperStockAs the housing market moves toward recovery in fits and starts, it's clear that the pace will not be the same everywhere. While would-be homebuyers in California struggle to find anything for sale and prices tick up in Phoenix, homeowners in Chicago aren't sure their property values have quit falling.

 

Business Insider has put together a list of the 15 best housing markets for the next five years and the 15 worst, based on data from Fiserv Case-Shiller.

 

Nationwide, home prices are predicted to rise 0.3% in the next year and 3.3% over the next five years. But that number obscures the spread among cities, as we learn every time we parse a new set of statistics.

 

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The city where Business Insider sees the biggest potential for price growth is Medford, Ore., a metropolitan area of about 207,000 people 27 miles north of the California border. Unemployment there is 10.8%, and the median family income is $46,000 a year.

Prices in the Medford area have fallen 39.8% since their peak in mid-2006. In the next five years, prices there are predicted to rise at an annualized rate of 11.2%, the highest predicted growth of metro areas nationwide.

At the other end of the spectrum is Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, a metro area of about 2.5 million people. Prices have risen in Florida in recent months, but the Business Insider analysis of the Fiserv Case-Shiller data doesn't see that continuing. Prices in the Miami area are expected to decrease at an annualized rate of 0.6% over the next five years.

The Miami area experienced one of the largest price drops in the bust, with prices currently down 50.4% from their peak in early 2007. Unemployment stands at 9.2%, and the median family income is $47,700 a year. Neighboring Fort Lauderdale is predicted to be the second-worst market, with an annualized price drop of 0.2% predicted for the next five years.

 

These are the markets that Business Insider and Fiserv Case-Shiller predict will have the greatest growth in housing prices from 2012 to 2017 and their annualized rate of growth:

  • Medford, Ore: 11.2%..
  • Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, Fla.: 9.5%.
  • Santa Fe, N.M.: 8.9%.
  • Madera-Chowchilla, Calif.: 8.8%.
  • Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.: 8.7%
  • Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif.: 8.4%.
  • Ocala, Fla.: 8%.
  • Napa, Calif.: 8%.
  • Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss.: 8%.
  • Tucson, Ariz.: 7.9%.
  • Brunswick, Ga.: 7.9%.
  • Yakima, Wash.: 7.8%.
  • Eugene-Springfield, Ore.: 7.7%.
  • Yuma, Ariz.: 7.7%.
  • Glen Falls, N.Y.: 7.7%.
These are the 15 metro areas expected to see the least housing price growth between 2012 and 2017 and the annualized expected change:
  • Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.: down 0.6%.
  • Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.: down 0.2%
  • Naples-Marco Island, Fla.: up 0.9%.
  • Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz.: up 1.1%.
  • Midland, Texas: up 1.2%
  • Elmira, N.Y.: up 1.3%.
  • Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Colo.: up 1.3%.
  • Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J.: up 1.4%.
  • Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.: up 1.4%.
  • Ann Arbor, Mich.: up 1.5%
  • Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.: up 1.6%.
  • Ithaca, N.Y.: up 1.7%.
  • Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.: up 1.7%.
  • Amarillo, Texas: up 1.7%.
  • Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.: up 1.8%.
What do you think of these predictions?
 
26Comments
Aug 10, 2014 7:02AM
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msn "latest market news" has a severe credibility problem. To wit: the above article was originally published nearly TWO YEARS AGO.
Dec 16, 2012 9:09AM
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Someone responded to my previous mail about Vegas not being mentioned in the worst hit areas and the respondent stated "Vegas is done period", don't quite understand without any proof of this situation except I know that the average people who live here are struggling and not gambling, do you get it.
Dec 15, 2012 10:20PM
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I live in Medford and recently purchased my first home for less then half of what the previous owner paid. While I understand that these are just predictions,this does make me feel more optimistic about selling my home in the future. 
Dec 15, 2012 9:06PM
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Panama City Beach is going to BOOM
Dec 15, 2012 8:05PM
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Medford Or. is actually a really beautiful area. "God's country" it's often called. Halfway between San Francisco and Portland too. The sad thing is the author found the most pathetic picture out there to represent the town. Might as well have posted a pic of some sad trailer park, geez. What's up with that?
Dec 15, 2012 7:58PM
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According to Bernanke, interest rates will stay about the same until unemployment hits 6.5%. Economists predict at least 30 months before that may happen. Homes in the middle to North Scottsdale area, priced right are seeing bid ups again in some cases. (That is scarry because that is what got us into the mess in the first place). Although appraisals are very tight, a move in ready is bringing asking. Our inventory is tight with about a 60 to 75 day supply.  A neighbor and a close friend both sold in one week for asking. Both gave buyer $3000.00 towards closing which was in both cases less than 30 days to closing the sales.

 

Dec 15, 2012 7:44PM
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In other words...  Middle class now = lifetime renter.
Dec 15, 2012 7:09PM
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Get real.  Yakima, Washington ?  Prices can't go down any further.  They can only go up.  Home sales can't go up if people can't afford to buy.  And take a good look at the wording of the article. 

These figures are based on predictions.

Dec 15, 2012 6:44PM
Dec 15, 2012 5:38PM
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I noticed that Las Vegas, Nevada was not mentioned anywhere, that is because all the sh-- hit the fan here and people are really struggling and that is the reason there is not mention, nothing is going to happen here in many years except people who come in to gamble.  People here don't have a chance in hell of recouping or even keeping what they have unless someone steps up to the plate to help them because they cannot help themselves.
Dec 15, 2012 5:01PM
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The reason for house prices going up (in some markets) is low interest rates, less foreclosures on the market, less supply...
Dec 15, 2012 4:59PM
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Where do they get these info from?  In the best 15 list, except Santa Barbara, there's no where on that list I'd want to move to even if a big house is given to me for free.  There is nothing at those places!!!!  And DC is onthe least growth?  That's where the strongest job market is!!!!!!  Is this article paid by the middle-of-no-where places to attract people???
Dec 15, 2012 4:40PM
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HMMM......the video says Phoenix is up over 20% but the text of the article says to expect only 1.1% over the next 5 years.  That would indicate that all the pop in that "recovery"  has already been seen.
I doubt that.

Dec 15, 2012 4:37PM
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I think they re useless and meaningless. where d the writer get this data. made it up to fill some space with morecrap from msnbc

 

Dec 15, 2012 3:31PM
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Ha!  The Mayan calendar says it's all going away anyhow!
Dec 15, 2012 2:35PM
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Tough to agree with these numbers when the prices around Gilbert, AZ have gone up about 30% in the last year....where are they getting their numbers from for this prediction?
Dec 15, 2012 2:28PM
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just obamaganda from the obamagandasists.
Dec 15, 2012 1:07PM
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Glad to see our part of the country is doing and going to do so well.!! Sorry the prices are dropping in so many other places. We live way out in the country and I wonder how country propertys are fairing price wise ??
Dec 15, 2012 12:49PM
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How can Theresa say this about Naples, FL?  Does she even have a clue about what the Naples market is doing now and expected to do over the next 5 years?  Apparently not.  This market over here is completley different than the Miami/Lauderdale market.
Dec 15, 2012 12:29PM
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Teresa Mears at MSN Real Estate...is a big joke about housing market recovery. More job losses and foreclosures in California, Oregon, Washington States after January 2013.

Be careful with all these "forecast and numbers from experts."

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