Best and worst housing markets in the next 5 years

As the housing market moves toward recovery in fits and starts, it's clear that the pace will not be the same everywhere. While would-be homebuyers in California struggle to find anything for sale and prices tick up in Phoenix, homeowners in Chicago aren't sure their property values have quit falling.

Business Insider has put together a list of the 15 best housing markets for the next five years and the 15 worst, based on data from Fiserv Case-Shiller.

Nationwide, home prices are predicted to rise 0.3% in the next year and 3.3% over the next five years. But that number obscures the spread among cities, as we learn every time we parse a new set of statistics.

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The city where Business Insider sees the biggest potential for price growth is Medford, Ore., a metropolitan area of about 207,000 people 27 miles north of the California border. Unemployment there is 10.8%, and the median family income is $46,000 a year.

• Pending home sales rise to 2007 level

Prices in the Medford area have fallen 39.8% since their peak in mid-2006. In the next five years, prices there are predicted to rise at an annualized rate of 11.2%, the highest predicted growth of metro areas nationwide.

• Builder confidence, existing-home sales rise

At the other end of the spectrum is Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, a metro area of about 2.5 million people. Prices have risen in Florida in recent months, but the Business Insider analysis of the Fiserv Case-Shiller data doesn't see that continuing. Prices in the Miami area are expected to decrease at an annualized rate of 0.6% over the next five years.

• Rate of negative equity falls to 28.2%

The Miami area experienced one of the largest price drops in the bust, with prices currently down 50.4% from their peak in early 2007. Unemployment stands at 9.2%, and the median family income is $47,700 a year. Neighboring Fort Lauderdale is predicted to be the second-worst market, with an annualized price drop of 0.2% predicted for the next five years.

These are the markets that Business Insider and Fiserv Case-Shiller predict will have the greatest growth in housing prices from 2012 to 2017 and their annualized rate of growth:

• Medford, Ore: 11.2%..
• Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, Fla.: 9.5%.
• Santa Fe, N.M.: 8.9%.
• Madera-Chowchilla, Calif.: 8.8%.
• Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.: 8.7%
• Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif.: 8.4%.
• Ocala, Fla.: 8%.
• Napa, Calif.: 8%.
• Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss.: 8%.
• Tucson, Ariz.: 7.9%.
• Brunswick, Ga.: 7.9%.
• Yakima, Wash.: 7.8%.
• Eugene-Springfield, Ore.: 7.7%.
• Yuma, Ariz.: 7.7%.
• Glen Falls, N.Y.: 7.7%.

• Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.: down 0.6%.
• Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.: down 0.2%
• Naples-Marco Island, Fla.: up 0.9%.
• Phoenix-Mesa-Glendal​e, Ariz.: up 1.1%.
• Midland, Texas: up 1.2%
• Elmira, N.Y.: up 1.3%.
• Denver-Aurora-Broomf​ield, Colo.: up 1.3%.
• Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J.: up 1.4%.
• Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.: up 1.4%.
• Ann Arbor, Mich.: up 1.5%
• Washington-Arlington​-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.: up 1.6%.
• Ithaca, N.Y.: up 1.7%.
• Nashville-Davidson-M​urfreesboro-Franklin​, Tenn.: up 1.7%.
• Amarillo, Texas: up 1.7%.
• Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.: up 1.8%.