Best and worst housing markets in the next 5 years
Miami and Fort Lauderdale homes are expected to lose more value. In contrast, Medford, Ore., prices are expected to grow at an annualized rate of 11.2%.
As the housing market moves toward recovery in fits and starts, it's clear that the pace will not be the same everywhere. While would-be homebuyers in California struggle to find anything for sale and prices tick up in Phoenix, homeowners in Chicago aren't sure their property values have quit falling.
Nationwide, home prices are predicted to rise 0.3% in the next year and 3.3% over the next five years. But that number obscures the spread among cities, as we learn every time we parse a new set of statistics.
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The city where Business Insider sees the biggest potential for price growth is Medford, Ore., a metropolitan area of about 207,000 people 27 miles north of the California border. Unemployment there is 10.8%, and the median family income is $46,000 a year.
Prices in the Medford area have fallen 39.8% since their peak in mid-2006. In the next five years, prices there are predicted to rise at an annualized rate of 11.2%, the highest predicted growth of metro areas nationwide.
At the other end of the spectrum is Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, a metro area of about 2.5 million people. Prices have risen in Florida in recent months, but the Business Insider analysis of the Fiserv Case-Shiller data doesn't see that continuing. Prices in the Miami area are expected to decrease at an annualized rate of 0.6% over the next five years.
The Miami area experienced one of the largest price drops in the bust, with prices currently down 50.4% from their peak in early 2007. Unemployment stands at 9.2%, and the median family income is $47,700 a year. Neighboring Fort Lauderdale is predicted to be the second-worst market, with an annualized price drop of 0.2% predicted for the next five years.
These are the markets that Business Insider and Fiserv Case-Shiller predict will have the greatest growth in housing prices from 2012 to 2017 and their annualized rate of growth:
- Medford, Ore: 11.2%..
- Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, Fla.: 9.5%.
- Santa Fe, N.M.: 8.9%.
- Madera-Chowchilla, Calif.: 8.8%.
- Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.: 8.7%
- Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif.: 8.4%.
- Ocala, Fla.: 8%.
- Napa, Calif.: 8%.
- Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss.: 8%.
- Tucson, Ariz.: 7.9%.
- Brunswick, Ga.: 7.9%.
- Yakima, Wash.: 7.8%.
- Eugene-Springfield, Ore.: 7.7%.
- Yuma, Ariz.: 7.7%.
- Glen Falls, N.Y.: 7.7%.
- Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.: down 0.6%.
- Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.: down 0.2%
- Naples-Marco Island, Fla.: up 0.9%.
- Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz.: up 1.1%.
- Midland, Texas: up 1.2%
- Elmira, N.Y.: up 1.3%.
- Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Colo.: up 1.3%.
- Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J.: up 1.4%.
- Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.: up 1.4%.
- Ann Arbor, Mich.: up 1.5%
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.: up 1.6%.
- Ithaca, N.Y.: up 1.7%.
- Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.: up 1.7%.
- Amarillo, Texas: up 1.7%.
- Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.: up 1.8%.
According to Bernanke, interest rates will stay about the same until unemployment hits 6.5%. Economists predict at least 30 months before that may happen. Homes in the middle to North Scottsdale area, priced right are seeing bid ups again in some cases. (That is scarry because that is what got us into the mess in the first place). Although appraisals are very tight, a move in ready is bringing asking. Our inventory is tight with about a 60 to 75 day supply. A neighbor and a close friend both sold in one week for asking. Both gave buyer $3000.00 towards closing which was in both cases less than 30 days to closing the sales.
Get real. Yakima, Washington ? Prices can't go down any further. They can only go up. Home sales can't go up if people can't afford to buy. And take a good look at the wording of the article.
These figures are based on predictions.
I doubt that.
I think they re useless and meaningless. where d the writer get this data. made it up to fill some space with morecrap from msnbc
Teresa Mears at MSN Real Estate...is a big joke about housing market recovery. More job losses and foreclosures in California, Oregon, Washington States after January 2013.
Be careful with all these "forecast and numbers from experts."
About Teresa Mears
Teresa Mears is a veteran journalist who has been interested in houses since her father took her to tax auctions to carry the cash at age 10. A former editor of The Miami Herald's Home & Design section, she lives in South Florida where, in addition to writing about real estate, she publishes Miami on the Cheap to help her neighbors adjust to the loss of 60% of their property value.