Could you get priced out of the housing market in 2013?
January Buying Advice: In some areas, the recovery is causing double-digit increases in housing prices, making it difficult for many people to afford to buy.
Some real-estate analysts are predicting that the nascent housing recovery could accelerate more quickly than expected in 2013, jacking up prices in some areas by double digits. Would an increase like that price you out of the market?
In this installment of Buying Advice, we'll look at the forecast for prices in the year ahead and examine how this outlook might affect your home search. We'll also check in with the latest housing data and get some advice on the best way to evaluate a condominium's association fees. (Bing: Homebuyer checklist)
Can you afford to wait?
The housing recovery seems almost too new to pose much of a threat to affordability. But in some areas, it's chugging along a lot faster than in others, as demand pushes up against a dwindling supply of homes for sale.
J.P. Morgan last month revised its U.S. housing forecast upward, predicting an overall gain of 3% to 4% in home prices for 2013. In some markets, however, the pace of gains has already been dramatic enough to strain the budgets of many first-time buyers before the spring selling season even begins.
Phoenix saw the biggest increase in year-over-year prices in October at 21.7%, according to S&P Case-Shiller data. Detroit, Minneapolis, San Francisco and Miami also posted big gains: 10%, 9.2%. 8.9% and 8.5%, respectively. With increases like that, price-sensitive buyers in these markets have cause to act quickly or risk being priced out.
Not so in many other markets: Prices in Case-Shiller's 20-city index were up 4.3% year-over-year in October, the last month for which data are available. Chicago and New York actually posted small price dips, and Boston and Cleveland saw gains of less than 2%. In those markets, buyers have less incentive to jump off the fence quickly.
- MSN Money: They'll pay you to move here
One perk that is expected to stick around and mitigate rising prices: low mortgage rates.
"I expect the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to stay under 4% for most of the year," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst with Bankrate.com. "It could trend slightly higher if economic improvement continues, but could move lower if the economy falters."
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Given the increase in demand and prices, Trulia's Housing Barometer says the real-estate market was 51% back to "normal" in November. Indeed, the almost 6% rise in existing-home sales in November seemed to back up economists' rosy view of 2013. (More on that below.)
Of course, the wild card, J.P. Morgan analyst John Sim says, is the so-called shadow inventory of distressed homes, which CoreLogic pegs at 2.3 million units, a seven-month supply at the current sales pace. Just how quickly this huge supply of homes is sold, and what the homes sell for, will help determine how quickly home prices will rise in some large markets.
- Realtor.com: What kinds of homes are for sale right now?
And with an eye to costs, many economists are keeping their eye on the mortgage-interest tax deduction, which many lawmakers are longing to eliminate or cap to help stop leaks in the federal budget. Changes there could raise the cost of homeownership, which could depress values in some high-cost markets.
- On our blog, 'Listed': Housing saved from 'fiscal cliff'
The biggest factor shaping the housing market in 2013, however, is supply: How many sellers will be motivated to list their home, and how many builders will start new ones? If inventory increases, it will help ease the bidding wars and make it easier for buyers to land a home.
How long can you afford to wait for the right home?
(MSN Real Estate wants to know: What was the biggest mistake you made in buying a home? Share your experience with us on Facebook or email us at email@example.com and it could be used in an upcoming column.)
Existing-home sales rose 5.9% to 5.04 million in November from a downwardly revised 4.76 million in October. They were up 14.5% from last November, according to the National Association of Realtors.
"Momentum continues to build in the housing market from growing jobs and a bursting out of household formation," says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. Low apartment-vacancy rates and rising rents are causing more people to consider buying rather than renting.
Thanks to the justice dept no one will be discriminated on in the housing market. Thank you Mr. President
A home is not an investment. It is a place to live. It is a place to feel comfortable in. It is nice when you have underpaid for your house. Unfortunately, people get "dazzled" by extravagant features like
hot tubs and outdoor gazebos. How much will you really use that media room? A home is not a muesum or a showplace. Having a particular zip code or area code is irrelevant...Neighborhoods change. Impressing the family or strangers is ridiculous. They are not going to pay your bills or buy
your overpriced fancy houses.
WOW. No Job, No House, No Money, No Car, No Mortgage Slavery, No Problem, except for the people like me that have to pay for and support your dead-beat lifestyle. Don't be proud of it.
I bought my first house when the rates were 18% and drove 90 minutes each direction for the priviledge of being a home owner. I've never regretted it, because it made me proud to own a home and still does. Back then I could only dream of the opportunities that are avaiable now, between low rates and government programs I would have done anything (including working 16 hour days) I had to, to take advantage.
It's definitely BACK!!!! My industry the mortgage lending industry is back in full swing. We're already buying homes again for ourselves!! it's a wonderful time! Suffered for 4+ years but incomes are back again, volume is way up, most brokers are gone & not int he way anymore. And we're not even back to full strength yet! Can't wait until we're even 80% strong again!!
Total ****. The housing market is a decomposing corpse. Buying a house with a bank loan is premeditated slavery. It's a trap! As George Carlin once said...
"It's called the American dream because you have to be asleep to believe it."